Frequently asked questions

1. I know nothing about stocks. Where do I start?
2. How easy is this system to use?
3. Where can I download your software?
4. What should I trade?
5. Can I use this timing system for trading SPDR options, E-Mini S&P 500 futures or spread betting the S&P 500 index?
6. Do you offer hot stock picks or timing signals for sectors and individual stocks?
7. I am not located in the U.S. Can I still trade the S&P 500? 
8. How are the timing signals generated?
9. Does market timing really work?
10. Can you guarantee the timing signals will be profitable?
11. How much can I expect to make?
12. How much should I expect to lose?
13. When are the signals updated.
14. Are your signals verified by a independent third party?
15. Is index timing suitable for everyone?
16. How much does a subscription cost?
17. Will broker commissions eat up my profits?
18. How do I cancel my subscription?
19. I have just signed up as a subscriber. Should I trade the current signal or wait for a new signal?
20. How can I contact you?
21. I have trouble logging in.
22. Should I trade on margin?
23. Should I go short?
24. Should I use a stop loss?
25. Where do I sign up? 
    

I know nothing about stocks. Where do I start?

In order to trade stocks you first need to sign up for a brokerage account. Your broker will be able to provide detailed instructions on how to place your orders to buy or sell stocks online. We have put together a short beginner’s stock market guide to explain some basic concepts and help you get started.

How easy is this system to use?

The S&P 500 timing system is very easy to use, even if you have no stock trading or technical analysis experience. While regular stock market charts and technical indicators can be unclear and very confusing, we provide clear-cut, color-coded indicators showing you when to BUY and SELL: 

All you need do is to log in and check the chart once a day to see if there is a new signal. Then call your broker and place an order.

Where can I download your software?

Trend-Chart.com is a subscription based website. You do NOT need to download anything. All you need is access to the internet, your username and password. You simply log on [from any PC] and start using our service.

What should I trade?

The timing signals are intended for timing Standard and Poor's S&P 500 index. This world-renowned index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in the major industries in the U.S. With over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, it is an ideal proxy for the total market.

The easiest way to invest in the S&P 500 index is via Exchange Traded Funds. An Exchange Traded Fund, or ETF, is a basket of stocks that is bought and sold on a stock exchange as if it were a single stock.  The Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts (ticker symbol: SPY). SPDR comprises a unit investment trust that holds shares of all of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Price Index (S&P 500) and closely tracks the price performance of the S&P 500.

There are also several other exchange-traded funds tracking the S&P 500 index. Among them are iShares slightly less expensive version of the SPDR (ticker symbol: IVV) and Rydex's S&P Equal Weight ETF (ticker symbol: RSP). ProShares Ultra S&P500 (ticker symbol: SSO) doubles the returns (and losses) of the S&P 500.

Can I use this timing system for trading SPDR options, E-Mini S&P 500 futures or spread betting the S&P 500 index?

The system was designed for trading the SPDR Trust Series (AMEX: SPY). It has not been tested for options, futures or spread betting. If you trade anything other than SPY, we suggest you initially play the system on paper and see how well it works before you invest any real money!

Do you offer hot stock picks or timing signals for individual stocks?

The system do not issue any buy or sell signals for individual stocks. Instead of following a multitude of different stocks, we focus our energies on the high volume, high liquidity, easy-to-trade S&P 500 index.

I am not located in the U.S. Can I still trade the S&P 500? 

Yes, participating in the U.S.market is easy, as numerous brokers offer Internet trading to non-US residents. Our timing model is strictly centered on the U.S. stock market. However, most non-US brokers will also allow you to trade U.S. stocks.

How are the timing signals generated?

The timing signals are produced by powerful software using a proprietary algorithm to calculate trend strength, upside potential, and downside risk in the market. The computerized model constantly analyzes the market and calculates the probability for an UP or a DOWN move to develop in the near future.

The system analyzes the market simultaneously in several different timeframes and always trades with the primary trend. We only enter low-risk trades with a high probability of success, and we convert holdings to cash if there is no clear direction in the market. The system is self-adaptive, meaning it calculates market strength and changes its parameters depending on the current strength/weakness in the stock market.

We don't use any traditional technical indicators to create timing signals, but the calculations do take into consideration price and volume data, volatility, and market breath.

Each factor within the dataset is assigned a certain weight in the algorithm, then the strength of the current stock market trend is calculated and charted by computers, based on a mathematical formula that can show with stunning accuracy when the current market is turning and starts to move in a new direction.

Does market timing really work?

It is often said that "you can't time the market," yet there is ample evidence that certain price movements can be anticipated correctly more often than not.

Measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and followed the conventional buy & hold strategy, your $10 would have grown to $10,957. If your $10 had not been invested during the 30 best-performance months, it would have grown only to $154. However, if you had taken your money out of the market during the 30 worst months, your $10 would have grown to $1,317,803!

One can see from these numbers that timing the market and staying in cash during market downturns is very important to long-run compounding. Tradable trends and patterns do exist in the stock market. And our goal is to find and trade these patterns.

Can you guarantee the timing signals will be profitable?

There is always some risk involved with trading stocks. You should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. However, using the S&P 500 timing system can minimize the risk, and it has proved to be a consistently profitable long-term investment strategy.

The main objective for creating this trading system was to make a conservative risk-averse strategy. This trading strategy does bring consistent profit in nearly all types of markets (up, down and sideways) with very low risk and small drawdowns. If you control your risk and let your profits run, you position yourself to make more money throughout the long term. Trading a low risk system with small drawdowns also makes trading on margin (which would double your gains) more attractive.

No market timing system based on automated mathematical models work 100% of the time. But our losses are small, and we get the most out of our wins. For a list of back-tested trading results, see the statistics section.

How much can I expect to make?

The returns vary from year to year, depending on the market conditions, but the market timing signals consistently outperform the buy-and-hold approach.

Based on back-testing analysis of the past eleven years performance we expect the system to return between 10 and 30 percent per year. During this time the system has returned above 50% three times, above 30% six times and above 15% ten times. During the entire 11-year period, there was not a single losing year even though there was a ferocious bear market from 2000-2002.

During the most reacent tree years of live trading (2006 - 2008) the system has returned between 10% and 38% every year.

Trading on margin would of course increase these gains.

How much should I expect to lose?

Drawdowns and loosing trades are normal parts of trading. Based on past results we expect approxematly 70% winning and 30% loosing trades. Occationally we have 2-3 loosing trades in a row. It is important to understand that no trading system will win 100% of the time. Drawdows up to 20% must be expected.

We want this timing system to work for you. But to make sure it does, you need to stick to the system. If you leave the system after a small drawdown/loss or during periods with low gains, you will not be around to profit when the strong profitable moves occurs.

When are the signals updated?

The timing signals are updated every day one hour after market close. The price logged at the site is the price at the exact moment the trading signal is generated (at market close). If a new timing signal exists, you simply place a trade with your broker to be executed the next day. The difference between the previous close and the next days trading range is usually very slight. You can also enter the market during after-hours trading with a limit order. NASDAQ, NYSE, and Amex After Hours Market runs from 4:00-6:30 p.m. ET.

If you can not see today's updated chart your browser might serve you a stale/cached page. Try clearing your browser's cache and hitting refresh. Your ISP's network might route your request through a transparent web proxy cache. While a copy of a page is stored in a proxy cache, the original page could be updated, and users would never see it, because the proxy will return the stale copy to users. Even if a browser user clicks on Refresh or Reload, the proxy will still return the stale version. With MSIE for Windows, the fix is to use Ctrl-Refresh (hold down the Ctrl key while clicking on Refresh) or Ctrl-F5, which causes the transparent proxy to refresh its copy of the page from the original web server.

Are your signals verified by a independent third party?

Yes, trades and returns are independently verified and tracked by TimerTrac.com, since the first live signal in January 2006. TimerTrack stats are based on real historical trades. TimerTrac.com includes dividends and interest earned on cash positions and will enter all trades at open the day after the trading signal is issued.

Is index timing suitable for everyone?

The S&P 500 index timing system is primarily intended for medium- and long-term traders, as it generates just a few signals per year. This is not a "get-rich-quick" scheme. You must carefully follow the timing signals, and you must be patient - profits come slowly, but surely.

If you are looking for hot stock picks or an short-term trading system promising to make you a millionaire by the end of next year, this is not for you. But if you are investing for the long term, this is an excellent timing tool for managing risk and preserving capital. S&P 500 timing allows you to consistently accumulate small monthly gains, ultimately making money through a disciplined, low-risk trading approach.

How much does a subscription cost?

There are no subscription charges for the first month. After your FREE Trial period is over and you sign up for a paid subscription you will automatically be billed $30 a month, until you cancel the subscription. You can cancel at any time by logging in to the subscription management area.

Will broker commissions eat up my profits?

Broker commissions can be very expensive. Compare how much different brokers will charge in commissions and fees. Brokerage firms are competing with each other to offer customers the best rates. Consequently, commission rates available to investors vary greatly.

Several zero dollar brokers are now offering commission-free trading. See the membership section for links to brokers offering free stock trading.

How do I cancel my subscription?

There is no need to cancel a free trial subscription. It will automatically expire after one month.

All paid subscription payments for Trend-Chart.com are handled securely by PayPal. Should you desire to cancel the subscription, you can do so by logging onto your PayPal account. There is also a direct link to cancel in the member section. 

I have just signed up as a subscriber. Should I trade the current signal or wait for a new signal?

Waiting for a new signal is usually the safer approach. If you enter in the middle of the current trade, you risk losses that would not have happened otherwise. Sticking to this rule requires a little patience, but it's important.

How can I contact you?

When contacting us, please use the contact form on this site. If you do not receive a reply, please check your spam or junk mail folder. In order to ensure that you will receive passwords and other emails sent to you we ask that you take just a minute or two to add us to your "safe" or permitted e-mail sender list if you or your ISP currently use an anti-spam program or service. This usually involves simply adding our domain (trend-chart.com) or sending address ( support@trend-chart.com ) to your whitelist, safelist, or list of priviledged senders. This process is commonly known as "whitelisting".

I have trouble logging in

Should I go short?

Selling short is the opposite of going long. That is, short sellers make money if the stock goes down in price. Going short does carry additional risk, however the risk of short-selling a highly-liquid, broad-based ETF like SPY is low compared to shorting individual stocks.

If you don't have a margin account, you can trade ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (ticker symbol: SH) instead of shorting SPY.

As always, the decision is yours, but you have the potential of much larger gains if you go short when our timing signal indicates the beginning of a strong bear market downtrend.

Should I use a stop loss?

Yes, you should always place a stop loss as a safeguard. We recognize that no timing system will be accurate 100% of the time. Therefore, a Cash signal is automatically issued if the market moves against our current position by more than 10% from our Buy or Sell entry point.

Where do I sign up?

You can sign up here. The first month is free for new subscribers. It takes only minutes to subscribe, so you can profit from our timing system almost immediately.